ABSTRACT
BackgroundThe risk of incident gout in the United Kingdom (UK) appears to have declined since 2013.[1] However, whether this is temporary or likely to continue is unclear.ObjectivesTo examine the influence of age, calendar year, and year of birth on recent gout incidence in the UK.MethodsUsing data from IQVIA Medical Research Database in the UK, we identified incident gout by READ codes from 1999 to 2019. We grouped age, calendar year, and year of birth into 3-year categories. We assessed the effect of age, calendar year, and birth cohort categories on the incidence rate of gout using the age-period-cohort model among all participants and in men and women separately.ResultsOver the 21 years, there were 164,588 incident gout cases. The incidence rate of gout increased with age until age 80, then leveled off (P for trend <0.001) (Figure 1A). The gout incidence increased from 1999 to 2013, then declined (Figure 1B). The incidence rate of gout was higher in the late birth cohorts than in the early birth cohorts from the Year 1999 to the Year 2013 (Figure 1C);however, such a trend was reversed after the Year 2013, with the incidence rate of gout being higher in the early birth cohorts than that in the late birth cohorts (Figure 1D). Similar patterns were observed in men and women.ConclusionUsing the age-period-cohort model, we found that the risk of gout in the UK increased from 1999 to 2013 and then declined afterward. These findings suggest that some environmental factors occurring after 2013 may play role. Such a downward trend of the risk of gout may continue if these environmental factors are still present.Reference[1]Abhishek A, Tata LJ, Mamas M, et al. Has the gout epidemic peaked in the UK? A nationwide cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, from 1997 to across the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. Ann Rheum Dis 2022 Jan 27.Figure 1.(A) Age rate ratios and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals of gout incidence. The relative risk of each age category compared with the reference age category (57-59) was adjusted for the calendar year and birth cohort. (B) Calendar year rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals of gout incidence. The relative risk of each calendar year compared with the reference calendar year (2008-2010) was adjusted for age and birth cohort. (C) Cohort rate ratios and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals of gout incidence. The relative risk of each birth cohort (1911-1982) compared with the reference birth cohort (1950-1952) was adjusted for age and calendar year. (D) Cohort rate ratios and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals of gout incidence. The relative risk of each birth cohort (1923-1988) compared with the reference birth cohort (1950-1952) was adjusted for age and calendar year.[Figure omitted. See PDF]AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81930071, 82072502, U21A20352), Project Program of National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (2021LNJJ06, 2022LNJJ07), the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (2022JJ20100), and the Science and Technology Innovation Program of Hunan Province (2022RC3075, 2022RC1009).Disclosure of InterestsNone Declared.